How Many People will Move to Canada if Trump is Elected?

March 26, 2016

First of all, why limit ourselves to Canada? Just because we share a border doesn’t mean it’s going to be everyone’s cup of tea. In fact, more Americans live in Mexico. So let’s consider the worst case scenario of a Trump presidency on the US population as of 2016, by assuming that those who don’t support him and have the means to leave the country will do so.

Peace Arch Park - 26
“Peace Arch Park – 26” by David Chilstrom

Do the math. There are approximately 324 million people currently living in the United States. We don’t have the luxury of making this population homogenous; there are green card holders, US citizens, visitors, and illegal residents. For simplicity’s sake, we can assume that anyone who is not a citizen will want to escape the barren hellscape Trump will bring into existence if elected, so…

+ 13.5 million permanent residents (green card), estimated
+ 11 million illegal immigrants
+ 2 million visitors (estimated average daily population of resident nonimmigrants)
= 26.5 million

However, it would be naïve to assume such an egotistical douchebag wouldn’t have the power to drive a number of US citizens out of the country as well. This number doesn’t include the members of the Armed Forced and US citizens living abroad. American diaspora – I love that term – account for approximately 9 million people, of which the largest percentage are already in Canada and Mexico. Let’s assume the sentient orange misogynist’s policies would persuade all of them to stay abroad. Therefore:

+ 26.5 million non-citizens and visitors
+ 9 million Americans abroad
= 35.5 million

Now, finally, we can look at the number of US citizens who are not only in a position to leave the US, but willing to do so: those that staunchly oppose a Trump presidency. I wish I could claim that this included all millennials between 22-34, but unfortunately some of them are idiots and believe in Trump’s messages of hate. According to the US State Department, there are approximately 115 million valid passports in circulation, 9 million of which must be held by Americans already abroad. So let’s say 106 million people who are legally able to flee on the drop of a dime if that walking turd is elected.

Of course, not all of them would be interested in leaving. Just like any decision, there would be a balance of risk versus reward, even for something as dangerous and unpredictable as Trump in office. According to Newsweek:

Slightly over half of Trump supporters are female, about half are between 45 and 64 years of age with another 34 percent being over 65 years old and less than two percent younger than 30. One half of his voters have a high school education or less compared to 19 percent with a college or post-graduate degree. Slightly over one third of his supporters earn less than $50,000 per year while 11 percent earn over $100,000 per year.

In regard to ideology, 20 percent of his supporters report that they are liberal or moderate, with 65 percent saying they are conservative and 13 percent labeling themselves as very conservative. His support from those saying they are involved with the tea party movement is 30 percent—meaning that 70 percent of his supporters are not involved with the tea party.

Mason Johnson at CBS Chicago breaks this down, estimating about 18,297,000 support Trump as of December 2015. As his “popularity” has increased since that time, and Johnson’s numbers are based only on registered Republican or Republican-leaning voters, let’s round this to an even 20 million. Considering how small a percentage of the population this is, it’s amazing he’s been able to spread his influence so far.

+ 324 million people currently living in the US
– 13.5 million permanent residents (already accounted for)
– 20 million brain damaged citizens, i.e. Trump supporters
= 290.5 million US citizens who do not actively support Trump

Based on Trump supporters’ xenophobia and ignorance, It wouldn’t be much of a stretch to say that all 106 million US passport holders were included in this group. As Samuel Clemens famously said: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and those who make it possible for Cheeto-Dusted Bloviators to enter the presidential race need it sorely on these accounts.” Let’s also assume that any American who holds a passport is above the poverty line, and thus in a decent financial position to leave the country if needed… I might be pushing it with that reasoning.

So, we have our total:

+ 26.5 million immigrants and visitors
+ 9 million Americans already living abroad
+ 106 million US passport holders who do not support Trump

= 141.5 million people fleeing or staying abroad at the thought of that moron in charge of the most powerful country on Earth

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